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ANALYSIS: F1's worst-kept secret is finally a reality, but how did it all unfold?

Written by Vyas Ponnuri


Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff said it "took him only five minutes to decide on Antonelli" after Lewis Hamilton's shock Ferrari move for 2025. However, a whole host of hurdles stood along the way before Wolff could finally break the news of Andrea Kimi Antonelli's signing to the Brackley-based team for 2025.


Antonelli's maiden FP1 outing earlier that weekend showed flashes of potential, the Italian pushing to the limit right from his first lap in the W15. Even when he crashed at Parabolica, he had lit up the timing screens. It was flat out, right to the limit.


Criticise him all you want, but there's no doubt a glimpse of talent had shone and caught the Formula One paddock by awe. After all, how many 18-year olds are brave enough to push a front-running Mercedes straight to the limit from the outset?


However, this 18-year old wasn't one to be taken lightly. After all, he had won the Formula Regional European Championship (FRECA) in 2023 by a margin of 39 points to the next best, Hitech F3 racer and McLaren junior Martinius Stenshorne.


While the latter, along with third-placed Tim Tramnitz and several others migrated to Formula 3, the next step on the ladder, Mercedes had a surprise in store for their young junior.


Instead of moving up into Formula 3, the Brackley-based team instead ensured the youngster soared up to the second tier along the Road to F1, bypassing Formula 3. Throughout the sport's history, very few names have skipped rungs in their career.


This list includes the likes of triple world champion Max Verstappen, who was pencilled in at Toro Rosso from F3's predecessor GP3 in 2014. The 'other Kimi', 2007 World Champion Kimi Raikkonen rose from Formula 3000 to Formula One at a young age, with only 23 single-seater races worth of experience under his belt.


Given the sheer talent and CV Antonelli possessed, he was certainly destined to eventually make it to Formula One. A driver who had won karting tournaments, and later dominated the German and Italian F4 series on his way to FRECA, the next step along the ladder. On his way, he'd also won the FIA Motorsport Games Formula 4 Cup, motorsport's equivalent of the Olympics but for junior drivers.


This was before his triumph in FRECA, coincidentally Antonelli's debut season too. It was no secret for Wolff to want Antonelli to be fast-tracked into Formula One as soon as possible. A driver oozing with talent, touted the 'next Verstappen', it was no doubt he'd race for Mercedes one day. It was more of when that day would come, rather than if.


The new Formula 2 regulations presented the perfect opportunity for the Italian to step up to the series, as the new, revised F2 car was introduced ahead of the season. It would mean every driver had to adapt to the machinery from scratch, erasing the prospect of more experienced drivers having the edge over rookies in the series, due to their prior experience.


The same would play into Antonelli's hands. With a new car, it would be a clear case of the drivers adapting quickest to come out on top. In addition, it would allow a driver of Antonelli's calibre to display his talent and excel, given this was the first year with the new spec Formula 2 car.


Despite Wolff's desire to speed up the Italian protégé's career even further, he would have had to hold off for the time being. Any talks of a possible promotion to Formula One may have heaped extra pressure on the youngster ahead of a debut Formula 2 campaign. Any external talk could have directly affected Antonelli's performance on the track.


Furthermore, another hurdle stood between Antonelli and a potential Formula One promotion. The FIA had raised the minimum age to 18, for any driver to be granted a Super Licence, in the event of Max Verstappen's promotion to the sport at a young age of 17.


However, the FIA later updated Appendix L of the International Sporting Code earlier this year, tweaking the rules to allow a driver 'judged to have recently and consistently demonstrated outstanding ability and maturity in single-seater formula car competition' to receive their super licence even before they turn 18.


This clause worked in Antonelli's favour, allowing him to take part in FP1 sessions, or even race in Formula One even before he turned 18, his birthday being only a week before the Italian Grand Prix weekend.


In the meantime, Antonelli's Formula 2 season had gotten off to a slow start. With Prema not being at their usual race-winning standards right away, Antonelli and teammate Oliver Bearman began the season on the back foot.


After failing to score in the sprint, Antonelli managed to grab the final point for the feature race at Bahrain, finishing tenth on the road.


The Italian's results began to improve, as he finished sixth in both races at Jeddah, before a strong drive at Albert Park saw him net fourth in the feature race at Albert Park.


Another fourth would follow at his home race in Imola, and Antonelli matched the same result in the sprint at Monaco. Further points would follow in the following day's feature race, with Antonelli finishing seventh.


The pressure may have heaped on Antonelli as he wouldn't finish in the points at Spain and Austria. At this point, many wondered if he had been promoted to Formula 2 too soon, instead of spending a year in Formula 3. As the super licence amendments came through successfully, rumours of Antonelli's promotion to Formula One in 2025 grew rife, and were questioned with greater rigour.


"Antonelli needs to swim." These were the words of Mercedes team boss Wolff ahead of the British Grand Prix. Simply put, the Italian would have to prove his mettle in Formula 2 before taking the next step.


While the Mercedes supremo began to assess his options once again, evaluating the likes of Carlos Sainz, who remained a free agent and was linked to multiple Formula One teams for 2025. Wolff also flirted with the hot prospect of tempting Red Bull's star driver Max Verstappen into a Mercedes move.


The latter was less likely to happen, with Mercedes still lacking in performance to the Red Bulls back then. A direct swap with Ferrari to secure Sainz's services looked viable, the Spaniard seeking a drive at a top team for 2025, a facet the Brackley-based team were offering.


However, neither party came to a consensus and pen a deal. With Wolff still fixated on promoting his young talent to Formula One at the earliest available opportunity, Sainz wasn't the first option on his cards. On the other hand, the 30-year old was seeking a stable option, something Mercedes weren't willing to offer, with Antonelli on the radar.


At this point, the balance of power swung back ever so slightly in the Italian speedster's favour. He displayed supreme talent to take a maiden win in a wet Silverstone sprint, finishing nearly nine seconds clear of second-placed Zane Maloney in a 21-lap race.


The pressure had lifted off Antonelli, in some sense. A timely win, one that had come right after he'd been given the careful nudge by Wolff, it spurred him along.


Having tried in vain to take the soft tyre a race distance in the Hungarian sprint, Antonelli applied his knowledge of the tyre life around the Hungaroring to good effect in the feature race.


The Prema racer took his hard tyres a long distance into the race, benefitting from a second safety car period in the race to pit for softer rubber, and clear the four racers ahead with relative ease to take his second victory of the season.


Another stellar moment at the mighty Spa-Francorchamps saw him pull off an overtake on current Williams racer Franco Colapinto in the wet. Not many dare to overtake at the fearsome corner even in dry conditions, but this move highlighted Antonelli's sheer racecraft and wet-weather abilities.


Even a brief glimpse of the 18 year-old's talent in the first few minutes of FP1 was enough to convince Wolff to finally make the announcement. Antonelli was ready, and he would finally make his Formula One debut.


While he will realise the true feeling of being a Formula One racer only when he sets out of the garage in FP1 at Albert Park in 2025, there is no doubt he will start to show his potential.


In George Russell, Antonelli has a fellow Mercedes junior who has risen up the ranks, and can help him adapt to the bustling environment and the fast-paced nature of Formula One. A race-winner himself, Russell knows a thing or two about driving a Mercedes at the head of the field, and will be a strong yardstick for the 18-year old in his debut season to match up to.


While Antonelli himself has big shoes to fill, and believes "No one can ever replace Lewis (Hamilton)," there's no doubt he is following in the path of none other than the seven-time world champion.


After all, who was the last driver to be scouted by a junior team at a young age, and jump up to a front-running team after a strong GP2 campaign? The answer is yours to guess, as Antonelli looks to etch the next chapter of a glorious racing career.

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