Written by Lizzie Kennedy, Edited by Meghana Sree
With the summer break rapidly approaching, Sergio Perez faced a final opportunity to seal his position at Red Bull during the upcoming Belgian Grand Prix, especially since securing a front-row start.
After weeks of intense speculation about a potential mid-season driver swap, Helmut Marko recently commented that Red Bull would be conducting an evaluation during the summer break of Perez’s performance and then make a decision.
Following a run of lacklustre performances including four Q1 exits in the last six races, the ‘Minister of Defence’ was required to shift into top gear and deliver a stellar performance to stand a chance of defending his seat.
At the dawn of the 2024 season, Red Bull seemed poised to cruise to the Constructors’ title, but the competition has since revved up, transforming the championship battle into a thrilling four-horse race.
Ferrari, McLaren, and a resurgent Mercedes are now hot on their tail. With McLaren only trailing Red Bull by 51 points, Max Verstappen can no longer carry the team on his merit alone. It now appears too late in the season for Perez to stage a comeback.
Red Bull announced a two-year contract extension for Perez through 2025, but it is believed to be filled with performance clauses.
The extent and details of these performance clauses remain unconfirmed but various insiders suggest Perez needs to be within 100 points of Verstappen by the summer break and within five places in the Drivers’ Championship standings.
While only one round remained before this weekend, it was now be impossible for Perez to catch Verstappen and meet these performance requirements, given that he had fallen 141 points behind his teammate, and seventh compared to Verstappen’s first place standing.
Having finished seventh to Verstappen’s fourth at Spa, he falls a further five points behind now. If such a clause exists, Perez’s future with Red Bull is on a collision course.
This development has ignited a fresh wave of speculation regarding the coveted second seat at Red Bull. There seem to be three key players in contention for the seat, both Visa Cash App RB drivers, Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo, and finally reserve driver Liam Lawson.
The burning question now is: Which of these three drivers is the most likely candidate should Christian Horner and Marko decide to make a change?
Based on their 2024 performance alone, the frontrunner should be Tsunoda given that he leads his teammate in the Driver’s Standings, with 22 points doubling that of Ricciardo’s twelve.
Lawson, whose commendable debut at Zandvoort in 2023 in place of an injured Ricciardo, showcased his capabilities and what an asset he could be to the Red Bull’s sister team.
However, Ricciardo’s recent performance improvements since the Canadian Grand Prix might make him a more dependable option, especially given he is the only one of the three who has the knowledge and experience of being in Red Bull’s top team.
Recently on Sky Sports, Tsunoda expressed his readiness to move up to Red Bull, stating it would be ‘weird’ if Liam Lawson were promoted ahead of him. As the only confirmed driver of the three for a seat in the 2025 season, this could be interpreted as Red Bull having more faith in Tsunoda’s performance over Ricciardo.
If Red Bull were to select Lawson over Tsunoda, this would represent a significant leap for Lawson, placing enormous pressure on his shoulders. Red Bull’s history of having little patience with their second driver lineup, would only amplify the high expectations of Lawson.
Between the British and Hungarian Grands Prix, Lawson tested in the RB20 at Silverstone for Red Bull’s second filming day allocation of the year. This test sparked questions about its significance, particularly in light of speculation surrounding Perez’s future.
However, in an interview with Sky Sports F1, Horner was quick to dismiss these rumours, stating that the filming day tests ‘have been planned for some time so they’re not something that have just sprung up.
An impressive test would certainly bolster Lawson’s case for a seat, adding to the reasons why he deserves one.
While the data results of this test remain under wraps, if Lawson was able to outperform Perez, and can replicate this success in his next scheduled test at Imola at the end of the month in a 2022 AlphaTauri, he should be setting himself up for success in at least the Vish Cash App RB seat for 2025.
Lawson demonstrated his reliability during his five Grand Prix entries in 2023, but with the gap between the top three teams ever narrowing to the Constructors’ Championship, staking it all on a reserve driver presents risks compared to an experienced seat driver.
Of the three drivers vying for the seat, the strongest likelihood is Ricciardo. Horner’s close relationship with Ricciardo having been the initiator into Ricciardo’s return to Formula One, underscores the chance of Ricciardo making a full-circle comeback to a championship-winning car at the team which saw him secure seven Grand Prix victories.
Ricciardo’s enduring popularity with the Formula 1 community, coupled with his good-humoured rapport with Verstappen, would undoubtedly make his return to the Red Bull seat a marketing dream.
Despite Ricciardo’s 2024 performance trailing behind Tsunoda’s, his recent upturn in form, extensive experience and charismatic personality all position him as the most probable candidate for the second driver role, should it become available.
While there remains a possibility that Perez may retain his Red Bull seat, his performance at Spa will be crucial. Perez must demonstrate he can keep pace with Verstappen to secure his position, as the Visa Cash App RB drivers would eagerly seize the opportunity should he falter.
Given Red Bull’s historical patience with underperforming drivers, it is highly plausible that we could see Ricciardo, the ‘Honey Badger’, stepping into the role after the summer break.
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