Written by Gabriel Tsui, Edited by Sharifah Zaqreeztrina
After a whirling few months of speculation, it was finally announced that neither Zhou Guanyu nor Valtteri Bottas will be retained by Kick-Sauber for the next season, while current F2 leader in points standings Gabriel Bortoleto will make the jump to F1 in 2025.
On the other side of the paddock, Red Bull have been frustrated by the disappointing performances of Sergio Perez, who looks increasingly likely to be on his way out by the end of the season.
With his performances in recent weeks, Liam Lawson, who replaced Daniel Ricciardo with six races to go in the season, was the clear favourite to replace Sergio Perez to partner Max Verstappen in the future.
This is where Franco Colapinto comes in. With the Kick-Sauber announcement, he lost another chance at a drive for 2025. It seemed like after a string of amazing performances that took the Formula One world by storm, while impressing most, if not all members in the paddock, he will be on the outside looking in for 2025.
However, one of those incredibly impressed parties were the Christian Horner and Helmut Marko. Reports have surfaced that Red Bull is in negotiations with Williams for the 21-year-old, but those negotiations are not close to finalising.
One of the roadblocks that is in the way of the negotiations is the terms of the deal. Given that Williams would ideally like to keep the young driver as Carlos Sainz, who will be joining in 2025, has a contract out if a top team offers the Spanish driver a seat in the future.
The British team is currently still seeking a loan deal for Colapinto, and will only allow the Argentinian driver to leave permanently with an approximate fee of 20 million dollars, according to a report by La Gazzetta dello Sport.
Sending Colapinto out on loan would avoid a situation where Williams are left to scramble for another driver once Sainz leaves for a top team in 2026, but this uncertainty is not something Red Bull want to be a part of.
Red Bull would obviously be more incentivized to acquire Colapinto in a permanent deal. The Williams’ hotshot, who aside from top tier driving skills, brings a lot of financial incentives with the incredible Argentinian backing from both corporations and fans.
A financial backing that could fill the hole that Perez would leave if Red Bull decides to part ways with the Mexican driver.
Alpine have snuck into the conversations as well, with them being more open to a loan move as the team’s executive advisor, Flavio Briatore, who is a huge fan of Colapinto, so much that they are willing to walk back on the contract signed with Jack Doohan, a driver from their own academy, to bring in the Argentinian.
Why a move to Red Bull would work for Colapinto
A move to Red Bull will certainly be the dream scenario for Colapinto, making the jump from Formula Two to Formula One, then another jump to the top team of the sport in the span of less than a year.
This will be a career changing opportunity for the Argentinian, as a move to the top team is the perfect opportunity for the driver to break out as a global superstar, also the person destined to be a pillar of the sport for years to come.
Along the way, he would also be making quite a bit of those benjamins for himself, with the amount of backing he is receiving currently not only from fellow Argentinians, but also from fans all over the globe. And maybe even bring in new fans that will be dedicated to be supporters for the young driver.
Why a move to Red Bull doesn’t make sense for Colapinto
However, aside from the 20 million dollars release clause mentioned above, there are a few internal road blocks within the team. First of all, both Yuki Tsunoda and Lawson are all very much deserving of a move to the A team, as both bring consistent performances in the VCARB cars for this season.
These two drivers have the potential to fulfil the role and the duties of a number two driver, while without costing the team upwards of 20 million dollars for their promotion to the team.
On one hand, Tsunoda is a four-year Formula One veteran, who is about to have a career high championship finish at 11th, while driving in a bottom three car, by the end of the 2024 season.
On the other hand, following a successful F2 campaign in 2022, Lawson moved to Japan for the Super Formula series, arguably the single seater racing series only second best to Formula One, and secured a second in the championship.
He also debuted in Formula One and held a temporary role in VCARB for five races after Daniel Ricciardo was sidelined with an injured hand.
If Red Bull decides to promote either Lawson or Tsunoda to Red Bull, it is hard to imagine Red Bull paying a huge sum for the Argentinian to drive in VCARB, while the likes of Ayumu Iwasa and Isack Hadjar are also in line for a promotion.
Unless Williams in one way or another is willing to lower their price tag to release the young driver, it is quite difficult to see the negotiations making any significant progress on the Red Bull front.
Why a move to Alpine would work for Colapinto
Though moving to the French team wouldn’t be as big of a move as one like moving to Milton Keynes, Colapinto will find a better role at the Alpines compared to what he has now or in Red Bull.
First of all, he won’t be obligated to be second fiddle and wingman for Max Verstappen, allowing himself a full range to showcase his talents. He also wouldn’t have the pressure from the likes of Horner and Marko, who demand slightly more from their drivers.
The French are also more open to provide the Argentinian a loan move, making the negotiations between the teams significantly less complicated. However, there are caveats for this move to happen.
Why a move to Alpine wouldn’t work for Colapinto
Though a deal between the teams would be relatively easy to sort out, it wouldn’t be as easy of a move on the drivers side. For one, Alpine will be undergoing a major rebuild with their preparation for 2026 and leaving the powertrains manufacturing scene.
A move to Alpine would be a step down in terms of car performance, and the team culture isn’t quite as great for Colapinto either. Alpine has had a questionable team culture in recent years, with rumours of internal conflict between factions within the team.
Aside from the aforementioned factors, the fact that Jack Doohan is already signed to a contract could lead to a lot of unrest across multiple levels. Doohan and his camp certainly wouldn’t be particularly happy to hear that he has been dropped before even driving a single lap in Formula One.
This would also signal yet another failure from the Alpine/Renault academy, seeing as another member failed to breakthrough, possibly on the way to another team/series. The other drivers in the academy might see this as a sign that they have less of a chance to make it to the top if they stick with Alpine, leading them to take their talent elsewhere.
Even if Alpine chooses to ignore all those negative factors, at the end of the day the deal is a loan move. Williams can take the Colapinto back whenever they want and there isn’t much that Alpine could do, and the French team will be looking for another driver yet again.
This decision will determine whether Alpine are actual serious championship contenders who have a plan on the road back to contention, or are just looking for a quick cash grab with Colapinto’s popularity, like most bottom feeders are incentivized to do.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, things can change quickly on either front. Maybe Red Bull get their number two driver for years to come, maybe Alpine get their added financial income, or maybe Williams decide that the best course of action is to keep the driver as their reserve.
Each move has its own pros and cons, but we will have an answer sooner rather than later, and it will be quite interesting to see where this race for the Argentinian will end up.
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