Written by Dan Jones
The IndyCar Championship is on the line as IndyCar returns to the Milwaukee Mile for the first time in nine years for a double-header weekend, in the most significant weekend into deciding who will be the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series Champion with contenders Álex Palou and Will Power likely to battle it out across 500 miles of racing action over the weekend in Rounds 15 and 16 of 17 in the 2024 season.
And it was Power's crucial victory last time out in Portland which put us in the position we are in now, as he dominated in the Pacific Northwest to lead Palou home, and establish himself as the only realistic threat to Palou's third IndyCar title in four years.
Power took the lead from surprise polesitter, Santino Ferrucci, into Turn 1, and would not look back, as he took his second win at Portland. Scott Dixon would be the victim of the only caution on Lap One after he collided with Pietro Fittipaldi, which effectively ended his championship hopes. Following Dixon's incident, as well as Palou's strong day the championship picture has completely changed.
Palou's lead now sits at 54, a race victory with maximum points difference - at that's only if Palou chose not to enter Milwaukee. It's an uphill struggle for Power, let alone anybody else wanting to win the championship, with the consistency that Palou has displayed over the last two seasons. Thereotically, eight drivers can still win the championship, though. The top ten are as follows:
Palou - 484
Power - 430
Herta - 417
McLaughlin - 396
Dixon - 383
O'Ward - 360
Newgarden - 353
Kirkwood - 342
Rossi - 295
Ferrucci - 274
But for the first time in nine years, IndyCar looks forward to heading back to West Allis, Wisconsin and the Milwaukee Mile, 'America's Legendary Oval,' which opened in 1903 and has hosted open wheel racing since 1937. The 'Mile' is officially 1.015 miles (1.633km) long, and features banking of 9.25 degrees in the corners and 2.5 degrees on the straights - a relatively flat oval in in IndyCar terms. Drivers will race 250 laps on Saturday and 250 on Sunday.
Milwaukee, which has the oldest operating speedway in the world, has the distinct feature of it's inside line being the second lane due to the flat kerbing and the higher speeds that can be consistently run on the higher side of the oval.
Not having hosted an IndyCar race in nine seasons, it won't be a surprise that very little of the current field have actually raced at Milwaukee. What bodes well for Will Power though is that he has won at this circuit, a decade ago, as well as a further podium in 2013. Scott Dixon has also won here, his success coming in 2009. Dixon also podiumed at Milwaukee, incredibly, in 2001 and 2008. He also won here in Indy Lights in 2000.
Josef Newgarden has raced four times at Milwaukee, finishing fifth on his last two visits, and was the last driver to take pole here. Graham Rahal is the only other driver in the field to race in an Indy car, however doesn't believe anything will translate: "Too much has changed, and honestly, the guys are just too good now. It's not like it used to be."
The likes of Jack Harvey and Conor Daly have also raced at Milwaukee at some point in their junior career.
The circuit hosted a full field test on June 11th, where Power lead a Penske 1-2-3 in impressive fashion, where the hybrid was used for the first time in 'race conditions,' as the series hosted a mock race. Colton Herta and Pato O'Ward rounded out the top five at that test, but that event did not see Chip Ganassi Racing or Juncos Hollinger Racing participate due to their driver's clashes at the 24 Hours of Le Mans - but tested at a later date.
Power was quick to praise the circuit following the test: “It hasn't changed much, I think those patches don't seem to have much grip though in the middle of the corners, which is really good for passing. It’s the same track. It feels exactly like it did." His record also speaks for itself: “I did really well here. It was one of my favorite ovals. I had been looking forward to coming here.”
Power did the most laps at the recent test with 188. Penske cars did the most laps, with over 500 combined between Power, McLaughlin and Newgarden.
This weekend will also see a couple of driver changes. As expected, Katherine Legge will return to the No. 51 Dale Coyne Racing with Rick Ware Racing car for the weekend, as she has done in all other ovals during the 2024 season. What was less expected though is Ed Carpenter stepping aside in the No.20 Ed Carpenter Racing car after stating: 'I have not performed to the level that I expect of myself for the team.' The road/street course driver of the No.20, Christian Rasmussen, will step in this weekend, as well as the season finale at Nashville Superspeedway.
Both changes are absolutely critical towards the Leaders Circle, where the Top 22 entrant cars get a $1 Million prize bonus. The No.20 sits on the bubble on the virtue of having a stronger finish, after Rasmussen's ninth place at Mid-Ohio, ahead of the No.78 Juncos Hollinger Racing, now occupied by Conor Daly. Rasmussen certainly does not have Daly's oval expertise, however produced fireworks on his debut at the Indianapolis 500.
Legge is also within a shout too, just eight points behind the cutline - quite the miracle for an entry which has had six drivers. What isn't such good news for Legge is that she was slowest of all in the test back in June, however, things can very quickly change. The battle between those three cars will be essential to watch over the weekend.
What will also be significant is the package that IndyCar decide to bring. The previous double-header at Iowa was a complete disaster, due to quickly degrading tyres, a bizarre repave, the hybrid and several other factors. However, to everybody's surprise, the racing at the last oval, at World Wide Technology Raceway, was significantly better than expected, and had the most overtakes since the circuit returned to the IndyCar calendar in 2017.
Josef Newgarden said to DIVEBOMB: "I have high hopes we can find a good package for both places. I think Gateway was really pretty phenomenal as far as the combination. It's not easy. It's not an exact science. I think if we could bottle a good racing package where there's usability on multiple lanes, we would take it everywhere Sometimes it's a little bit of guesswork, trial and error. You have to kind of go places a time or two to figure it out in this new package. We're trying to figure it out, with the extra weight, hybrid, aero, tire configuration."
But all eyes will be on the championship this weekend. If Álex Palou retains the margin he has over 500 laps of racing, he will be crowned the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series champion. A gap of 49 points would also unofficially seal Palou the championship.
When asked by DIVEBOMB for this thoughts going into the weekend, Palou was optimistic: No. I mean, I'm not 100% comfortable. I think we have a lot of work ahead of us to do. But yeah, as I said, it could be a lot worse. I could be with only one point of difference, then I would have to obviously beat him on those tracks or I could be sitting second or third. I like where we're sitting. I like the opportunity we have in front of us. As I said, I felt really good at Milwaukee. Maybe we can surprise Penske. Who knows. Maybe we show up and suddenly nobody can catch us."
Palou maybe optimistic, but even he knows the ball is in Penske's court this weekend. Power has raced, and won at Milwaukee before, ran the most laps in the test, and was quickest in the all-important test which will best represent the weekends conditions.
But you never quite know in IndyCar. Palou is still yet to claim an oval victory, an oval victory this weekend would be maybe the most important win of his career. It's double the action, double the points, and double the excitement. We don't know much with Milwaukee being of the schedule for so long, but what we do know is that if Álex Palou leaves Milwaukee with a 55 point buffer to second place in the championship, he will be crowned the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series Champion.
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