Written by Dan Jones
After 16 rounds of racing, an IndyCar season which has consisted of shocks, twists, out-of-this-world racing, last-lap deciders, heroic performances and so, so, so much more all comes down to this. The action of the Indianapolis 500, the controversy of St. Petersburg, the beloved return of the Milwaukee Mile, the rollercoaster ride of Alabama, and every other race, are all a thing of the past. All those roads lead to Nashville, where a champion will finally be crowned, and chapter 2024 can be closed. It's time for Nashville Superspeedway, Round 17 of 17 in the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season.
With a champion still to be crowned, let's look back at how we ended up in this situation after the last round in the Milwaukee Mile double-header. Pato O'Ward comfortably won Race One, a big statement after comments from Penske Entertainment CEO, Mark Miles, stated that O'Ward's popularity prevented the series from racing in Mexico. Power followed him home in second, whilst Conor Daly took Juncos' first ever podium in third. Álex Palou would finish fifth at the flag.
However, coming into Race Two, Palou's Chip Ganassi Racing machine would have what has since been confirmed as a battery issue, leaving the Spaniard unable to fire, and his race effectively over. The team would send him out so he could pick up any bonus points should his opposition fall into trouble, with the defending champion finishing 19th.
This presented itself as a glorious chance for Will Power to hugely condense the points gap to Palou coming into the season finale, however, he spun on a late restart all by himself, putting the Australian a lap down, and to come home in a disappointing tenth, as teammate, Scott McLaughlin claimed his third win of the season.
That brings us to Nashville, and more specifically Nashville Superspeedway. The season finale had been intended to be hosted downtown, on a different layout that had seen IndyCar race on the streets from 2021 to 2023 in several infamous crashfests. However, with the continued work the the Tennessee Titan's NFL stadium, where the paddock was based for this season, that forced alternate plans.
Up stepped Big Machine Label Group Chairman, Scott Borchetta, who held a review on the event stating that it was unfeasible, and moved the event to Lebanon, Tennessee, about 30 minutes down the road to Nashville Superspeedway, which leads us to where we are now, the Superspeedway hosting the first oval season finale in over a decade.
And heading into the event, three drivers remain in mathematical contention of the IndyCar championship. I place an emphasis on mathematical, because Scott McLaughlin will be eliminated on the condition that Palou takes the green flag on Sunday's race.
McLaughlin is not giving up though - seemingly having his own solutions to put himself in with a chance. Inviting Palou to dinner on Twitter, as he makes 'sushi from scratch,' and has a 'legit fish guy' to re-assure Palou... seemingly. He has since asked Graham Rahal to borrow the team's MotoAmerica bikes as he gives his 'buddy' Palou a tour of the 'Tennessee countryside.' Palou has politely declined both offers, both characters showing their good sense of humour.
So the attention turns to Palou and Power, with one of them to be crowned a three-time IndyCar champion at the conclusion of the action on Sunday. To put a very-long story short, if Palou finishes in the top nine, he will be crowned IndyCar champion, whatever Power may or may not do. A lot details on various bonus points - which I've detailed in the graph below.
However, as a minimum, if Power wins, a finish lower than 15th for Palou would see Power champion whatever bonus points come into effect. But here's the table which should hopefully simplify it all.
I've gone more in-depth on this topic in a separate piece if you'd like to find out more about the championship battle.
Bonus points will potentially play a vital role. One if up for grabs for leading a lap and taking pole position, with a further two for leading the most laps. Power must finish in the top three, otherwise Palou will become the champion if he starts the race.
Palou may not be regarded as strong on the ovals as he is the road courses but still has 16 top nine finishes in 20 oval races for the team. What may give Power confidence is two of those have happened this year, one being Palou's crash all-by-himself at Iowa.
However, Palou's strategist, Barry Wanser, thinks nothing of it when asked by DIVEBOMB: "I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get his first win this weekend. I mean, going into even Gateway weekend, we thought it was possible and as well as Milwaukee. He definitely runs up front, and he certainly is capable. He loves the ovals. He understands the ovals, but the ovals are hard."
But let's talk Nashville Superspeedway, and all the other information you need to know about this weekend's event. This is Nashville's first IndyCar race since 2008, as the mile-and-a-third oval hosts it's ninth IndyCar race. Banking reaches 14 degrees in the corners with nine degrees on the front stretch and six on the backstretch.
It may not have hosted a race in 16 years, but this event is still all about Scott Dixon who is the triple-defending race winner, and has a further second place. Dixon has never finished outside the top eight in his six visits to Nashville. Graham Rahal has also competed at Nashville, where he finished 12th in 2008, but doesn't think his experience will mean much this weekend: "Too much has changed, and honestly, the guys are just too good now. It's not like it used to be."
The other driver to race here: Will Power, who raced in 2008 too, with a finish of 11th. His championship rival has 'only seen it [Nashville Superspeedway] on iRacing.'
Despite it retuning to the calendar, there's been no full-field testing at the circuit this season. Pato O'Ward and Colton Herta have conducted two seperate tyre tests, whilst Graham Rahal, Will Power and Scott Dixon have all done one test each. Ed Carpenter also tested, but has handed over the No.20 car to Christian Rasmussen for the remainder of the season.
The reason that Carpenter relinquished his seat to Rasmussen? The Leader's Circle, the top 22 entrant cars that receive an approximate $1 Million bonus for their performances through the course of the season. The No.20 finds itself locked in battle with the No.41 A.J. Foyt Racing of Sting Ray Robb and the No.30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing of Pietro Fittipaldi.
Rasmussen lies a singular point beneath the cutline, with Robb on the bubble at 175. Fittipaldi has got a margin of three to Rasmussen, however, RLL's form on ovals over the course of the last two seasons has been woeful. Robb is the only driver of the entries to have a top ten on an oval this season, at World Wide Technology Raceway, but suffered a disastrous Milwaukee weekend, and wasn't strong at Iowa either.
Rasmussen has impressed when he has been racing on the ovals this season, finishing 12th after an excellent performance at the Indianapolis 500, before a 16th and 11th at Milwaukee, but has received criticism for his driving style in ovals, after he rammed into the back of Graham Rahal in the second Milwaukee race.
It's a captivating storyline to follow throughout the weekend, with such little margin, and one of them set to miss out on the bonus. The No.51 Dale Coyne Racing may still be in play, but would need a miracle, whilst the No.66 Meyer Shank Racing and the No.78 Juncos Hollinger Racing would need some atrocious luck to miss out. Archie has gone more in-depth on the topic here.
One practice session before qualifying, a track that hasn't been raced on in 16 years, a venue that has not had a full-field test in 2024, what other variable can be thrown in the mix in this critical finale? Well that comes from Firestone, who have added an additional alternate tyre on an oval, and only for the second-ever time, after utilising it in Gateway last year.
Entries will receive six of the traditional, black primary tyres, and four of the red alternate tyres to use throughout the weekend. Drivers must complete at least two laps on each tyre, whilst using two sets of alternates in the race and one set of the primaries. Palou's strategist, Barry Wanser stated the following to DIVEBOMB on the topic:
"We really don't know how the tires are going to perform. You know, it's no different than just having primary tires at Gateway. We didn't know how much degradation we were going to have, whether they were going to have passing or not. Same thing at Milwaukee. We ended up having great races there. Heading into Nashville we're in the same situation, but now they're throwing in this additional unknown with the alternate tires. The difference is there's little regulation on the tires."
It's just another twist in yet another enthralling season finale, on a track where nobody knows what the race will look like. Expect Penske to be strong, their oval form, whether on short track or superspeedway has been dominant over the last few years. I'd expect Pato O'Ward to be in the mix with the testing he's done and how he has performed on ovals throughout the last few years.
I think we've got to give some serious consideration to Scott Dixon to, not only considering his experience and track record at Nashville, but also the fact that he is so consistently strong in out-of-his-depth scenarios. Palou's title does look safe, it is fully in his hands, if he does what he has done for his entire Chip Ganassi Racing career by keeping the car clean and maximising his result, a third championship will certainly come his way.
There's plenty up for grabs in the championship order. The top ten are as follows:
Palou - 525
Power - 492
McLaughlin - 475
Herta - 462
Dixon - 443
O'Ward - 419
Kirkwood - 384
Newgarden - 365
Rossi - 350
Ferrucci - 339
Katherine Legge has also been confirmed to race in the No.51 Dale Coyne Racing with Rick Ware Racing car as she has done for all oval events in 2024.
It's a wildly unpredictable weekend, and with a championship decider thrown into the mix too it's an extra special treat to end what has been a captivating 2024 season. There's been so many special memories from the course of the season, whether that was Newgarden's last lap overtake to win the Indianapolis 500 again, Power's emotional return to victory lane, a first podium for Juncos through the return of Conor Daly, the feats of Kyle Larson in the Month of May - who has since been announced for another shot in 2025.
I'd like to thank everybody who has read and supported these previews throughout the course of the year - it's why I keep writing them. However, continue following the website and the DIVEBOMB IndyCar Podcast in the off-season for all the chatter and news. But before we do that, we have one final chapter to write, and one key question that still needs to be answered. Who will have their name etched on the Astor Challenge Cup for a third time and be crowned the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series Champion?
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