Written by Gabriel Tsui, Edited by Vyas Ponnuri
After a convincing win by the Fords and Joey Logano in Atlanta, the field will be heading towards Watkins Glen in upstate New York for the second race of the playoffs and the round of 16.
As a few key contenders such as Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin fall behind after a disastrous start, will they be able to get out of the bubble before it’s too late, or will they fall even further behind as the dark horses secure their spots for the next round?
Track Preview
Watkins Glen is one of the few road courses on the NASCAR calendar and has been a longstanding member on the calendar. Opened as a permanent race track in 1956, this track hosted the first NASCAR race in 1957 and returned in the 60’s for two years.
It became a true regular beginning in 1984, hosting a race every single season in the late regular season slot. However, due to the Olympic break schedule reshuffle, The Glen was moved to the playoffs for the first time in the track’s history.
The drivers will be racing on the short course layout, with a distance of 2.454 miles (3.959 kilometres), and eleven corners. The drivers start their lap down the main straight, heading towards a right handed, downhill turn one. On the exit, the drivers will use every bit of the curb, while avoiding going too far and spinning out.
Then comes the flat out uphill esses where the drivers quickly move up in elevation by nearly a hundred feet. After the esses, the drivers go down the back straight, heading into the bus stop chicane. This is a prime overtaking/dive-bombing spot for the drivers, with accidents happening here nearly every race.
Drivers also tend to spin on the exit of the chicane if they missed the curb and dip the tyres into the grass. Following the bus stop, they go down the carousel, carrying a whole lot of speed into the final left-right, back down the main straight.
The drivers will run 90 laps around the track, with 20 laps in the first two stages, and 50 laps in the final stage, totalling a distance of 220.86 miles (355.44 kilometres) ran around the track.
The weather report indicates that there will be no precipitation during the race weekend, with temperatures ranging from 24 to 28 degrees Celsius (75 to 82 degrees Fahrenheit). The race will commence on the Sunday of September 15th, at 15:00 ET (12:00 PT, 21:00 CET).
Race Predictions
Watkins Glen has long been dominated by the Chevrolets, with the Chevrolet five-peating in their last five visits, with Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson taking two wins each, while William Byron is the defending champion of this race.
In Atlanta, the Chevrolets had a relatively successful race weekend, with four of their playoff drivers taking top-ten positions. However, they were unsuccessful in their bid for the win, as Joey Logano took the win in overtime.
However, as they return to a track where they had total dominance, we predict that William Byron in the #24 will win the race for a second time in a row, as he has shown his ability to dominate road courses in COTA 2024 and Glen 2023.
The rest of the Hendricks are no pushovers either, as Larson and Bowman won in Sonoma and Chicago respectively. The mix of experience and star power will propel one of these drivers to victory lane on Sunday, and an early advance to the round of 12.
Three story points to look out for
Make or Break for Larson, Hamlin, and Gibbs
Larson, Hamlin and Gibbs all had a disastrous start to the playoffs, finishing below the top-15 while scoring less than 25 points to start the playoffs. Watkins Glen will be a deciding race for their playoff fates, as a decent result will push them away from the bubble, while a poor one will do significant damage to their playoff hopes.
The Fords aren’t significantly strong in the road courses, and not at the Glen. If they can capitalise on the Fords’ shortcomings on road courses, while avoiding accidents and simple mistakes, life will be much easier when they head to Bristol for the final race of the playoff round.
2. Ford, it’s time to wake up
When we take a look at the drivers below the cutline, three out of the four drivers are Ford drivers. This is certainly not good news for Team Penske and Ford who will need all the help they can get for their three-peat hopes.
While Keselowski can easily overtake Gibbs and Hamlin if the two JGR drivers have a slightly unpleasant weekend, Chase Briscoe and Harrison Burton risk falling out of playoff contention entirely if they are unable to score significant points. It is time for them to wake up, and get back into the mix before it’s too late.
3. Mistakes will shape the outcome of the race
Watkins Glen is one of the most unforgiving tracks on the calendar, as one simple mistake could send you spinning out of contention or straight into the barriers. The ability to avoid mistakes and silly incidents will be key in determining the outcomes of the race.
On the other hand, pit crews will also need to be on their A-game, as the Glen is a track of long green flag runs, that also means green flag pit stops. Mistakes on pit road could lose you significant positions, and a lot of points especially at the end of stages and the race.
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