Written by Dan Jones
After 16 races, it all comes down to this. From the rollercoaster of the Indianapolis 500, to the narrow walls of St. Petersburg, the short track action at Iowa, the scenic Road America, there's one last chapter to be written of the 2024 IndyCar season, and the most important of them all, who will leave Nashville Superspeedway with the Astor Challenge Cup in hand and can call themselves the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series Champion.
Will that individual be Álex Palou, or will that individual be Will Power. It could in theory be Scott McLaughlin... sort of. McLaughlin lies 50 points back from Palou, but with Palou guaranteed five points for seeing the green in Nashville, that will put him above the threshold of 54 that McLaughlin would need to win the championship.
McLaughlin has his tactics though! He's already offered Palou over for dinner, as he's making 'sushi from stratch,' and for Palou not to worry, as McLaughlin's 'fish guy is legit.' Palou, after seemingly little consideration, politely declined McLaughlin's offer.
McLaughlin went a step further, asking Graham Rahal for some of his team's MotoAmerica bikes so he can give his 'buddy' Palou a 'little tour of the Tennessee countryside' in the days leading up to Nashville. Palou, in response, questioned McLaughlin's ability to ride a bike.
In all seriousness, it has been a fantastic year for McLaughlin, and is out of the championship fight through very little fault of his own. If things hadn't transpired after St. Petersburg, or got caught up in accidents in Toronto, had mechanical failures at Long Beach, or even avoided his own mistakes at Detroit or Laguna Seca, he'd likely be comfortably the champion, but it's not to be.
So let's turn our attention to the two main protagonists both gunning for a third IndyCar title, Palou aiming to become the first driver to win consecutive championships since Dario Franchitti, and aiming for his third title in four years, whist Power aims to add to his 2014 and 2022 successes.
Palou's gap is comfortable, but not assertive, 33 points at the top of the championship. Long story short, if Palou leaves Nashville with a top nine finish, he will be crowned the champion, whatever Power has done.
But it's a weekend where very little is known. IndyCar has not raced at Nashville Superspeedway since 2008, a race that Power finished 11th in. Palou was just 11 years old at the time. Whilst Power has raced at Nashville, Palou hasn't seen it, or 'only on iRacing,' to be specific.
The lack of a full field test at the venue has certainly thrown a cat amongst the pigeons. Only select drivers have tested at Nashville, one of those being Power, who completed a tyre test with Palou's teammate, Scott Dixon, in early August. Many of the field have not tested at the venue, with only Power, Carpenter and Dixon racing previously, although that may not translate much according to Rahal: "Too much has changed, and honestly, the guys are just too good now. It's not like it used to be."
The tyre conundrum has only complexified further. Like they did at Gateway last season, Firestone will offer an alternate compound on an oval, with two sets of the alternates to be used in the race. Drivers will be allocated six primary tyres and four alternate tyres. Drivers must do at least two laps on each compound.
When asked about the change by DIVEBOMB, Palou's chief strategist, Barry Wanser stated: "We really don't know how the tires are going to perform. You know, it's no different than just having primary tires at Gateway. We didn't know how much degradation we were going to have, whether they were going to have passing or not. Same thing at Milwaukee. We ended up having great races there."
"Heading into Nashville we're in the same situation, but now they're throwing in this additional unknown with the alternate tires. The difference is there's little regulation on the tires."
"After the Sunday night practice we have to declare our starting tires like we normally do, but again, there's no true usage rule. You could have the alternate tire be the favorite tire or the primary, but if you have one tire that's least preferred, that's when you can start having some different strategies play out throughout the race."
It's yet another fascinating unknown to contend with ahead of the finale. A track which hasn't been used in 18 seasons. A track which hasn't had a full-field test this season. An alternate compound to come into play. One practice session before qualifying to sort all of this out.
What other factors could influence the outcome of Sunday's race? Well watch out for the teammates. Palou may have four in his stable, but Dixon is expected to be the main challenger - the triple-defending race winner at the circuit, and the individual that Power pointed out as the biggest threat, as far back as Portland:
"Dixon is very good at Nashville. I said that before. I could see him winning that race, see him being very competitive. He could play a part, absolutely, in a scenario where we must win, you're probably going to be fighting Dixon."
But could the teammates play a role in the championship? You'd certainly think so. Newgarden is miles off, and although McLaughlin will want to be the top Penske driver in the standings, Power believes all eggs should be in his basket: "We should probably, yeah, be looking at how can we get the 12 car in the best possible position. Really that's our only chance. We got three really good drivers - four really if you include Santino - that are capable of running at the front."
And Newgarden would be happy to support Power if the opportunity arose: "If it comes down to the finale, I've had great support from him in the past. Thinking about my first championship, 2017, he shadowed me the whole race. When it comes down to the very end and we're still in position. If you start trying to orchestrate too much, you put yourself into a mess. I'm not going to do that. I don't think as a team we're going to try to do that."
"Logically, you come down to the finale, we're in Nashville, we have a car that can seal the championship, I'm not in it, I'm going to have his back all the way, 100%, when it comes down to the very end, hopefully we're in a position to seal the championship, we all want to see that happen, especially me. I'll make sure that we get the job done then."
And Power's strategist, Ron Ruzewski added further when asked by DIVEBOMB: "Well, ultimately, we need all of our cars to finish in front of Alex. You know, having them have a good day overall is a benefit to us just trying to take points away, but at the end of the day we need seven or eight other cars to have a good day as well, assuming that Alex has some struggles"
"The biggest thing that we can use the 3 and the 2 for is information. You have three world-class drivers there. The practice sessions are short. There are different tires. So trying to maximize the information from the practice time trying to understand and get a feeling for degradation."
"All three of our guys - they all work really well together, especially when push comes to shove and they're trying to all three run up front. It's really been a strength, especially on the ovals the last couple of years. Set-ups aren't too different. I expect them all to work really well together this weekend."
But how does the situation look for Power?
Firstly, he must finish on the podium. A non-podium finish would mean no championship for Power. Temporarily excluding bonus points, if Power wins, he requires a finish lower than 11th for Palou. If he finishes second, he will need his rival 23rd or lower, and a third place finish relies on bonus points coming into play.
The extra point up for grabs in Saturday's qualifying could be vital for Power should he achieve the pole position. Power would then need Palou to finish 11th if he is victorious, and 22nd if he is the runner-up. However, if Palou takes the pole, Power's work becomes more difficult, with Palou only needing a 12th place if Power is victorious and a 23rd if he finishes second.
Bonus points are vital on Sunday too. Both drivers could gain an extra point if they were to lead a lap, with a further two points up for grabs with the most laps led. There's currently 39 different combinations with regards to bonus points on how Power can win the title, and for the sake of ease, I've documented it below so you can break it down.
Before bonus points, drivers gain 50 for a win, 40 for second, 35 for third, 32 for fourth, 30 for fifth with a deduction of two points for each position until 10th, where each place means a point going on down.
However you look at it, this is not easy for Power. His fortunes more rely on what Palou does - he could be completely irrelevant if Palou is to run at the front all day long. There's a sort of myth that Palou is not a good oval driver. Yes, he's stronger at the road courses, but that's not to say he's weak at ovals. That notion was supported by Wanser when asked by DIVEBOMB:
"I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get his first win this weekend. I mean, going into even Gateway weekend, we thought it was possible and as well as Milwaukee."
"He definitely runs up front, and he certainly is capable. He loves the ovals. He understands the ovals, but the ovals are hard. It's different racing. So there's different techniques, and the veteran drivers certainly have the advantage, but it's fun watching some of the younger drivers start to pick it up. Alex, like I say, he is poised to win his first oval, and I think he's really looking forward to that himself."
And the stats back him up too, even without the illusive oval victory. Since Palou joined Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021, he's competed in 20 oval events. Palou has finished in the top nine in 16 of them. Yes, two of the blips have come this season - but one was completely out of his control and the other was a very uncharacteristic error. It's not to say he couldn't make the same mistake again - but how many times do we see Palou make a mistake.
If you break it down to the 23rd place finish excluding any bonus points, that has happened once on an oval since Palou joined Ganassi - at Iowa this season. If Power gets maximum points with second place and that number becomes 19th or lower - that's only happened three times in Palou's Ganassi oval career.
Yes, Palou can't be compared to the likes of Newgarden, McLaughlin or Pato O'Ward on ovals but he's still one of the best.
The ball is very much in Palou's court. If he drives the typical way that he has driven the last three seasons, the championship will very much be his. But, it doesn't come much tougher than a track he's never driven at, has very little time to practice at after no testing, and an alternate tyre to deal with. Power faces similar challenges, to a lesser extent.
But Palou's adaptability in his IndyCar career means that it wouldn't be a surprise to see him take home a very good result. But, we've seen that he is human and makes these mistakes, as was the case at Iowa. If that were to happen again, the pendulum very much switches back in Power's direction, as it has done all season.
Palou was rampant on his way to the championship last season. This has been a different challenge, but one he has stood up to just as well. It wouldn't be surprising to see Palou stand up to the ultimate challenge he faces at Nashville.
The unknowns are a mouth watering prospect at Nashville Superspeedway as chapter 17 of 17 is written to close out the 2024 IndyCar Season. It's been a season filled with greatness, drama, surprises and so much more, and that final chapter will be written out and stay in the memories forever. The question now is: Who will be on the front cover, Will Power or Álex Palou?
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