Written by Dan Jones
After 14 races of action, from the thrills of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway to the narrow Streets of Detroit to the single-lane action at Iowa Speedway, it comes down to this, the three oval races that will end the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season, and more important decide the 2024 Champion - will it be Álex Palou or Will Power who has their name engraved on the Astor Challenge Cup for a third time, and write their way into the history books.
Now as a disclaimer, there are still eight drivers mathematically who have a chance at the Series title between now and the chequered flag at Nashville. Four of those drivers are over two race victories behind. Kyle Kirkwood, for example, would need Palou to finish 24th on average, whilst he takes maximum points. Palou has finished lower than 24th three times in his career, and not for two-and-a-half years.
Scott McLaughlin lays 88 back, and would need Palou to finish eighth or lower on average, whilst he takes maximum points, whilst Colton Herta, 67 back, would need Palou fourth or lower on average, on the condition they take maximum points. It's not impossible, but it would certainly require quite the collapse from Palou.
So let's turn our attention to the two who have the best shot. 2021 and 2023 Champion, Álex Palou, and 2014 and 2022 Champion, Will Power.
Power's words post-qualifying in Portland were clear: "Just got to keep finishing ahead of him." He further echoed those words when asked by DIVEBOMB: "I would have to say if he finishes ahead of me tomorrow, starts to look very, very tough. We have to have a good day, at least finish ahead of him, see where we come out in points there. Then doubleheader at Milwaukee, a lot on offer. Our goal is to get as close as we can to him by Nashville."
"My goal is I just got to stay ahead of the guy. I have to finish ahead of him, it's as simple as that. It's the only way I'm going to have a shot at the championship."
Power would stay true to his word. He took the lead off maiden polesitter, Santino Ferrucci, almost immediately, and would not look back from there. Power would lead 101 of 110 laps to take his third victory of the season, as he led Palou home to bring us to the situation we are at now. A 54 point gap with three races remaining.
And Power would not let go of his intentions after his all-important victory: "We simply have to at least finish ahead of him, but ultimately win to keep this thing alive. That's what we did. It's going to be the same every week. It's going to be the same every race from here out. Just got no choice but to be ahead of him or it's over." He further said: "Yeah, that's our only shot. That is our only shot. We must be continually finishing ahead of him and see where it falls."
Power's intentions are very, very clear. And it comes ahead a crucial stretch of races, which in all likelihood, will play into his favour. Rounds 15 and 16, the Milwaukee Mile. The Milwaukee Mile makes it's return to the IndyCar schedule for the first time since 2015, and the 43-year-old Australian already has a key card, not in the fact he's raced at Milwaukee, but he's won there.
Across the course of Power's career, he has raced at the Mile seven times, taking home victory in 2014, after dominating from pole position, as well as a further third place in 2015. And, IndyCar's full field test in June backed up Power's statement, as he was the fastest of the 20 cars running, and ran the most laps with 188.
“I did really well here. It was one of my favorite ovals. I had been looking forward to coming here,” said Power, following the day's action which saw practice running as well as a mock race with the hybrid engine.
The caveat? Palou was not present at the test as he was preparing for his maiden appearance at the 24 Hours of Le Mans. Palou has since tested at Milwaukee in early July, but did not experience the crucial race running that Power did.
Does Palou not racing there mean much? Josef Newgarden doesn't think so: "No, look, this guy is excellent. I don't have a crystal ball. I think Alex is pretty damn good at what he does. Look, never raced at Milwaukee. Okay, he hasn't raced a lot of places and proves pretty well."
So what can we expect this weekend? Palou was firmly optimistic when asked about his chances, "I'm looking forward. It's a great chance for me to win an oval race, having three now at the end. The calendar was released before we started the championship, so I knew that this was going to be the last couple of races, and wasn't the best-case scenario for us. Our job was to try to do as much work as possible heading into those races. So I think we've done that."
And these comments were expanded on when asked by DIVEBOMB if Penske's oval form is a danger to Palou's championship: "I'm not 100% comfortable. I think we have a lot of work ahead of us to do. But it could be a lot worse. I could be with only one point of difference, then I would have to obviously beat him on those tracks or I could be sitting second or third."
"I like where we're sitting. I like the opportunity we have in front of us. As I said, I felt really good at Milwaukee."
Palou remains optimistic but Penske's track record when it comes to ovals cannot be swept away. Since the start of 2022, there has only been three oval races the team have not won. The 2022 Indianapolis 500, the 2022 Hy-Vee Salute to Farmers 300 (where Newgarden crashed out from the lead with a mechanical), and the 2023 Gateway 500. They have won every oval race this season.
Their form was only hammered home post the crucial test at Milwaukee as Penske went 1-2-3, their three drivers completing the most laps of anybody. Power had also further tested in Milwaukee in October last year. His words from October and June echoed each other:
“It hasn't changed much,” Power said of Milwaukee. “I think those patches don't seem to have much grip though in the middle of the corners, which is really good for passing. It’s the same track. It feels exactly like it did. "
Can Power's seven additional races at Milwaukee play the difference, his comments suggest so. His last race win in Milwaukee was significant in him sealing his first title. That would be Power's first win on a short oval, Palou is yet to win on an oval of any kind.
And maybe it's unfair that Palou is written off at short ovals, because he is still a mighty fine driver. Fourth in Gateway, second in Iowa, third in Iowa last year. Palou has finished in the top ten in six of his last seven short oval races - his crash at Iowa being his only blip.
Penske's form is almighty, and could the strength of the entire team play into Power's hands? "I think if we have the cars to win, and we want to win the championship, yes, that's probably what we should do with three to go," said the Australian when asked if Penske should put all their eggs in his basket, "We should probably, yeah, be looking at how can we get the 12 car in the best possible position. Really that's our only chance. We got three really good drivers - four really if you include Santino - that are capable of running at the front."
But Milwaukee still remains unknown: "You don't even know, like, can you pass at Milwaukee? Will qualifying be a big deal? How will this play out? I don't even think we've run on the tire we're going to run. Yeah, a very, very interesting three races that you really don't know where everyone's going to stack up. All the ovals we went to this year, we've had history on, very good setups and data for. Milwaukee, we tested there a couple times now. But it's really difficult to tell till you get in the race situation to know how good your car really is."
There are a lot of unknowns heading into Milwaukee, and the lack of Ganassi's at the open test doesn't give us a relative indication of where they stack up against Penske, but Penske's track record speaks for itself. What we do know is that if Palou leaves Milwaukee and is able to extend his gap at the top of the standings to one further point, he will leave as champion, a 55 point buffer will crown Palou as champion.
But as Power highlighted: "Ultimately, one DNF for him, one win for me, you're right there. Certainly within 20 points. That makes it very possible it could happen." As Palou said: "Maybe we can surprise Penske. Who knows. Maybe we show up and suddenly nobody can catch us."
Neither are bulletproof on ovals, we saw Palou shockingly crash out at Iowa, we saw Power get caught up in that accident at Gateway whilst competing for the win, or at Iowa, where he collided with Pietro Fittipaldi and Ed Carpenter.
But if the buffer between Palou and second place, whether that is Power or not, is 54 points or below the title will go to Round 17, Nashville Superspeedway. "Never been to Nashville, never seen it. Only on iRacing," were Palou's immediate comments when asked about the venue.
It's another case of drivers being thrown in the deep end, but Palou is relishing the challenge, he joked: "I would prefer if it was the last couple races at Indy road course, Laguna and Road America, but that's not the case."
"The most difficult part of the year comes now, the next three weeks. Yeah, hopefully next week I can win an oval race." But Palou can rest somewhat easier with the gap he has: "Yeah, I think it's good. It's not enough, but it could be a lot worse. I'm looking forward. I think that allows us to go aggressive, to just think about the race and not having to think about points and trying to minimize damage or anything like that."
And Power remains positive too when asked what a third title would mean to him: "Oh, yeah, tremendous, tremendous in many different ways. To win in this series, at this time, it's so difficult. You get a third championship from a deficit of 54 points at this point, come back from a deficit like that, yeah, that would be amazing. It would be absolutely amazing. To finish on all ovals, as well, kind of going back to my early days, sort of unfinished business there. Yeah, it's a tough climb from here, but not impossible."
However, Power thinks, come Nashville, there will be a different threat: "Dixon is very good at Nashville. I said that before. I could see him winning that race, see him being very competitive. He could play a part, absolutely, in a scenario where we must win, you're probably going to be fighting Dixon."
Palou has never seen Nashville, but Power has raced there, finishing 11th at his only appearance at the venue in 2008. But, completed a tire test in early August in preparation for the race on September 15th. Could these small things make the difference?
Graham Rahal, who has also raced at both Milwaukee and Nashville, thinks prior experience is minimal: "Too much has changed, and honestly, the guys are just too good now. It's not like it used to be."
It's a fascinating potential final twist in a fascinating championship battle - but that provides Power can keep the gap as it is, or hopefully, fewer, heading into the race at Nashville.
You can read into every page and turn every single corner, but as both drivers highlighted, one DNF, one surprise can change everything in the course of a championship. But this is where it truly matters, there is no catching up time after this, there is no opportunity to make up for any mistakes.
Don't get it twisted, this is still Álex Palou's title firmly to lose, but like he said, it is not 100% comfortable. Power has a track record at Milwaukee, Penske were strong at Milwaukee, but had no comparison to Ganassi. Can they surprise Penske at Milwaukee? Can Palou get the gap to the 55 points he needs post-Sunday?
The last-minute call to change the venue of the season finale from the Streets of downtown Nashville to the Superspeedway 45 minutes away may have just thrown in one final twist in the battle to decide the 2024 IndyCar Series champion, all we need to do is see how it unfolds from here, and who will have their name engraved on the Astor Challenge Cup and be remembered in the history books forever.
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