Written by Dan Jones, Archie O'Reilly, Morgan Holiday and Jackson Lambros
With just days until cars roll on track to kick off the 2025 season on the streets of St. Petersburg, a six-month wait for IndyCar racing will finally come to an end. Álex Palou will come into the season as a double-defending champion but is expected to have plenty of opposition up and down the field.
Ahead of the season, we posed seven questions to our IndyCar writers and here are their answers…
Who will be the 2025 IndyCar Series Champion?
Dan: It’s not right to say that 2024 was a breakout year for Scott McLaughlin - that already happened several years ago, but 2024 was the year that McLaughlin displayed all the assets of somebody who is at the standard of an IndyCar champion. Yes, McLaughlin made errors which threw away points, but he’s made it clear that those errors won’t happen again. He’s already proved himself as one of the better road course racers in the series, but McLaughlin’s form on ovals in 2024 was convincing - he’s arguably now the best oval driver in the series. When you break down every single metric, it’s now difficult to find a weak point of McLaughlin’s. A high-quality road and street course racer who was the best average full-time qualifier in 2024 and has now esteemed himself at the ovals sounds like somebody who is ready to become an IndyCar champion to me.
Archie: If it was not for the push-to-pass saga in St. Pete and the lost third-place points that came with it, Scott McLaughlin would have been the 2024 IndyCar champion. That is not to mention the mechanical failure that followed at Long Beach and being put in the wall by Team Penske teammate Will Power in Toronto, plus his own errors in Detroit and at Laguna Seca. Otherwise, McLaughlin finished no lower than eighth and won three races - crucially including his first two oval wins. If he can knit everything together, he feels like the driver with the highest peak level in the series at the moment. He has been the top Penske the last two years and is now a complete IndyCar driver, and in his fifth year as an open-wheel driver, it feels about time he goes the full mile.
Morgan: In 2024 we saw a taste of what Colton Herta can do when he gets into a groove and achieves consistent results. After a tumultuous 2023 season where he didn’t pick up any wins and finished tenth in the championship, he came back the following year to score two wins including in the season finale that allowed him to take second place overall. Now, coming off the back of his best-placed finish in an IndyCar season, Herta is in a prime place to improve that finish. He’s always been a fast driver, but consistency will be key to take his first championship win with Andretti.
Jackson: It’s to go against Álex Palou for yet another run at the Astor Challenge Cup. In just five years in the series, the Spaniard has gone from a rookie with Dale Coyne Racing to an IndyCar phenomenon. His boss for the past five years clearly loves winners, but Chip Ganassi has found a far more important trait in his drivers: consistency. Race wins still the headlines, but they aren’t going to win you championships. Consistency will win you championships. It’s how Jimmy Vasser got Ganassi's first title in 1996, it’s become the mantra of Scott Dixon’s career, and this eerie consistency is how Palou will be the first driver to three-peat since Dario Franchitti in 2011.
Who will win the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500?
Dan: This one is a bit of a mystery, certainly more so than previous years with the added weight of the hybrid set to play an influence in how this year’s running will pan out. However, I just can't look past Team Penske’s strength at the Speedway last year without believing that they are going to be a major threat once again in 2025. Josef Newgarden may be the one to beat as he goes for a three-peat, but once again, I am quietly backing Scott McLaughlin. Last year’s polesitter looked very comfortable at the front all day, and had it not been for a clutch issue, McLaughlin would have likely been in the lead pack as the field approached Lap 200. Simon Pagenaud is playing a big role for McLaughlin at the ‘500’ too, and I think him and Penske have shown enough for me to believe McLaughlin will be drinking the milk come May 25th.
Archie: No driver has ever won three consecutive Indianapolis 500s. But if anyone is to become the first and make history, Josef Newgarden feels like an excellent bet. Across the last two years, after 12 years of trying to win a first Indianapolis 500, he appears to have found the perfect approach around the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. It will not necessarily be as plug-and-play from a car set-up standpoint with the added hybrid weight this year, but Newgarden’s game plan at Indy has been a decisive factor in his back-to-back wins. He has calculated and timed when he makes moves and where he wants to be in the pack at certain points in the race impeccably - willing to take risks but with sublime execution. It feels like something special is brewing.
Morgan: Out of five Indianapolis 500 starts, Álex Palou has had three top five finishes, and only one finish outside the top ten (his rookie season with Dale Coyne Racing). He has also qualified both first and second in previous years, making him one of the drivers always on the cusp of real success at Indianapolis. After three championship wins, winning the '500' is the next big achievement on Palou’s list of things to conquer, and he’ll be coming into this year with a thirst for his first Indy 500 victory. While competition will be fierce and he’ll have a lot to contend with to take the win, after two consecutive titles he’ll know a win at the brickyard is within his grasp and I’m betting he’ll take it.
Jackson: If losses are lessons, Pato O’Ward has learned an awful lot about the Indianapolis 500 over the past 5 years. Two painful losses in 2022 and 2024 have had the Mexican just corners away from his face etched on the Borg-Warner Trophy. But, O'Ward has continued to show a strong pace elsewhere, Winning in Milwaukee and showing a consistent pace in the hybridised machines. Milwaukee compared to Indianapolis certainly isn’t apples to apples, but the principle remains: O’Ward is one of the most adaptable drivers in the field. It’s how he grabbed victory at Mid-Ohio in the first race of the hybrid era, and how he won the first IndyCar race at the Milwaukee Mile in nearly a decade. O’Ward, with a team now led by Indianapolis 500 legend Tony Kanaan, has all the pieces together to finally grab the one that keeps getting away.
Who will win the Rookie of the Year Title?
Dan: It’s not quite as extravagant a rookie crop as the series has had in recent years, but the Rookie of the Year battle is one of the most intriguing in several seasons nonetheless. I don’t want to count out Jacob Abel straight away, but I see him having the most difficultly in claiming the Rookie of the Year crown. Robert Shwartzman is a great addition to the field, but with the amount of learning he has to do, as well as the unknowns surrounding PREMA’s performance, I think this may be a step too far. It’s a safe bet for me then with Louis Foster who has clearly proved himself IndyCar-worthy after a dominant championship season in Indy NXT. Yes, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing (RLL) are not at the standards they expect, but with Foster’s ability they should be able to see off the challenges of Abel and Shwartzman.
Archie: Of the 2025 rookie crop, Robert Shwartzman has the greatest pedigree as a successful junior on the Formula One ladder and with experience driving F1 machinery and being embedded in F1 teams. Do not count out Jacob Abel either. But with Shwartzman and his PREMA team both embarking on their maiden IndyCar foray and Abel’s Dale Coyne Racing team coming off a tough 2024, reigning Indy NXT champion Louis Foster is my pick for Rookie of the Year, even with RLL having some inconsistency to iron out. Unlike Shwartzman (and PREMA), Foster has experience on almost every track and has grown significant oval pedigree in the Road to Indy. His Indy NXT triumph by 122 points over Abel was emphatic last year and there is a reason why RLL opted to sign him above others.
Morgan: Which driver wins the Rookie of the Year award comes down to several factors: the speed of the driver, their adaptability, their consistency, and most importantly their team. For 2025, the three (excluding Kyle Larson) rookies aren’t coming into top teams. It’ll be a battle of survival between Jacob Abel at Dale Coyne, Robert Shwartzman at PREMA, and Louis Foster at Rahal Letterman Lanigan. Of the three of them, Shwartzman joins IndyCar with the least IndyCar-relevant experience and the most unknowns at a brand new team. While it would be safer to bet on Foster or Abel, who have experience racing at most of the tracks (or have any oval experience at all), we know what the teams they’re coming into are capable of. If PREMA can pull off some good performances and establish themselves as a solid midfield contender, Shwartzman will be in a good position, given his wealth of racing experience, to swoop in and take a surprise victory in the rookie standings.
Jackson: We’re on schedule for one of the tightest Rookie of the Year battles in seasons, with the rookie trio of Abel, Shwartzman & Foster all on relatively equal footing in equipment. Despite all of this, early signs point me to Jacob Abel for the title. The 23-year-old feels already right at home at Dale Coyne Racing, developing the family feel with the No. 51 team he was used to in NXT. Chemistry aside, the 2024 Indy NXT runner-up is already showing strong pace against Foster. Abel outpaced Foster on the same weekend in Sebring, running a tenth quicker then the defending Indy NXT champ. Most importantly though, the learning process of ovals and superspeedways will be minimalised for Abel, after being the only rookie with oval experience in an Indy car after running 250 laps at Texas Motor Speedway in a November test with Ganassi. Although it might not seem like much, event that marginal oval time could be a major factor in comfort and pace at Indianapolis and beyond.
Which driver-moving teams will have the most success?
Dan: It was really about time that Christian Lundgaard departed an RLL team who were on the decline and holding back the Dane’s development. And with the team’s struggles in recent years, it’s rather difficult to actually understand what Lundgaard’s calibre is as a driver in the series. He’s proved himself capable on road courses but the question will remain on his adaptability to fighting at the front on ovals. Neither Alexander Rossi or Felix Rosenqvist have been close to challenging Pato O’Ward at Arrow McLaren, but I do think Lundgaard will give O'Ward more of a headache, and even sneak his way into victory lane this season.
Archie: I can see the vast majority of an exciting crop of transferred drivers guiding their teams to a better place. An honourable mention from me goes to Rinus VeeKay, who I believe is the right man to bring back better times as the lead driver for a Dale Coyne Racing team that had a turbulent 2024. But David Malukas is my pick. It was very impressive the manner in which he got up to speed immediately with Meyer Shank Racing last year, joining mid-season after the pre-season injury that saw him lose his Arrow McLaren ride. It was enough to catch the eye of Team Penske, prompting a move to the Penske-linked A.J. Foyt racing team which saw Santino Ferrucci elevated 10 positions in the standings last year. Malukas has exceptional raw speed and Foyt feels like an excellent match.
Morgan: Coming into his fourth season in IndyCar, it was only a matter of time before Christian Lundgaard got picked up by a top team. After two years with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Lundgaard boasts two pole positions, two podiums, and one race win. It’s more than anyone could have expected for a driver coming over from a junior career in European racing at a team that often struggles to fight in the midfield. Now moving to Arrow McLaren for 2025, a team that consistently fights for poles and wins, expect big things from the Danish driver.
Jackson: Excellence on the ovals is all I could expect following David Malukas’ announcement he’d be migrating to A.J. Foyt Racing for 2025. After three seasons with the team, Santino Ferrucci has already shown the benefits of the team's technical alliance with Team Penske, with eleven top-10 results in 2024, including an eighth-place finish at Indy, and a pair of top-5 finishes at Milwaukee. Combine that with the prowess of Malukas as shown at Gateway and the result is a potential upset winner in the oval points standings. None of this is to say the aggression won’t be there for Foyt and Malukas when it comes to the road courses (as shown by Ferrucci's pole in Portland), but the excitement is palpable when it comes to this pairing on the big tracks. After watching how quickly 'Lil’ Dave' embedded into his new team at Meyer Shank Racing last year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Malukas hunting top 10’s early on this season.
Which driver will be the most improved from 2024?
Dan: Outside of the Indianapolis 500, 2024 couldn’t have really been any worse for Josef Newgarden. Multiple controversies over race victories, several errant weekends plagued by individual errors, his worst championship finish since he was at Team Penske - it was certainly an uncharacteristic year for the two-time IndyCar Champion. And on that basis, a driver with his reputation surely cannot have two years consecutively of such struggle. Newgarden seems to have a refreshed approach coming into the season, and maybe the pressure may now be off after expectations have been lowered. Newgarden is too good of a driver to continue that errant form, so expect him back at the front of the field in 2025.
Archie: Josef Newgarden’s 2024 season was one of peaks and troughs and little in between. His year appeared derailed before it had even really started with disqualification from the St. Pete opener after winning the race. And while he became the first back-to-back Indianapolis 500 winner in over two decades, an eighth-place championship finish - in the region of 100 points behind both teammates - and more finishes outside than inside the top 10 made for a disappointing year. But it has struck me how positive and motivated he has seemed heading into 2025, turning negatives into lessons; there has been no sense of crisis, unlike a lot of talk of having to rediscover enjoyment pre-2024. It feels a matter of time before the two-time champion - and three-time runner-up between 2020 and 2022 - is back in the title fray.
Morgan: If you’re looking at drivers who underperformed in 2024 relative to expectations, David Malukas should be at the top of your list. After signing a contract with Arrow McLaren for what should have been a breakout season for the young driver, a pre-season wrist injury put Malukas out of a seat. He missed the first eight races of the season before signing with Meyer Shank Racing in an attempt to salvage his year. In the ten races he completed with the team he scored just two top ten finishes, a drastic fall from grace when you consider what he could have accomplished with Arrow McLaren. Now with A.J. Foyt Racing for 2025, it won’t be the step up that Malukas was hoping for at a top team, but he has another shot to prove his worth in IndyCar and he won’t let it go to waste.
Jackson: Marcus Ericsson certainly had a 2024 to forget. A second place finish at Detroit would be the highlight of his maiden season with Andretti Global, finishing a meagre 15th in the standings. It’s almost hard to believe the Swede produced such a season when stable-mate Colton Herta finished runner-up in the championship standings, but rotten luck for Ericsson and bad strategy calls from the No.28 box meant the former 500 champ had his worst season since 2020. 2024 was still the honeymoon phase for the pairing of Andretti and Ericsson, but this season is the time to execute. In his sophomore year at Chip Ganassi Racing, Ericsson ended 2021 with a pair of wins, one at Detroit, and another on the streets of Nashville. With Andretti's equipment showing impressive pace on street circuits, I expect much of the same from Ericsson in 2025.
Who will be a surprise package in 2025?
Dan: 2024 was not a flashy season for Kyle Kirkwood, but I still thought that the Floridian went under the radar after a quietly impressive season. Yes, Kirkwood did not see victory lane once after two appearances in 2023, but his consistency was impressive, and consistency is what wins titles, not having large numbers of race victories. Kirkwood has now shown he can be consistent but can also fight at the front, and was not far off Colton Herta based on raw pace. I do expect Kirkwood back in victory lane, and I’d also expect him to be operating at a very similar level to the highly-rated Herta. Kirkwood has now gone under the radar as a reliable and dependable driver and it’s time that eyes were back on his performances.
Archie: Nolan Siegel came into an unstable Arrow McLaren team in tricky circumstances midway through 2024; the manner in which the team moved aside Theo Pourchaire to allow Siegel’s mid-season graduation from Indy NXT led to criticism. But Siegel never showed signs of being overwhelmed, and despite the suddenness of his step up and little time to adapt, he had a steady end of the season. There were few flashy results both in qualifying and races but learning was the priority ahead of a first full season in 2025. He has since spent the off-season bulking up physically and rewatching past races. And after being able to properly embed himself in the team, I can see Siegel surprising a few people - at least those unaware of how quick he was in Indy NXT. He may not match his more experienced teammates but watch out for him being a lot closer.
Morgan: PREMA is the newest addition to the IndyCar grid, coming to America with Callum Ilott and Robert Shwartzman in 2025. It would be easy to write the new team off with low expectations for their first season, but they’re hardly inexperienced when it comes to motorsport. PREMA has long been a powerhouse in the F1 feeder series and now they’re hoping to conquer IndyCar as well. While it’ll certainly be a challenge and there will be plenty of places where they’ll need to adapt, don’t count them out for some good results once they get into the swing of things.
Jackson: The conversations are primarily over the Foyt-Penske alliance, but in the off-season it was confirmed that Chip Ganassi Racing are sending their information over to t Meyer Shank Racing. Making the move after a a several year partnership with Andretti, the alliance with Ganassi might prove beneficial to the pairing of Rosenqvist and Armstrong, with both formerly driving for CGR. But beyond the help is the hunger for MSR. Felix Rosenqvist had a strong start with the team last season, earning them their first-ever pole position. Marcus Armstrong joins the team after getting his first podium last year at Detroit, a finish he felt was a “long time coming”. The big four teams will remain the ones to beat this year but don’t be surprised to see the No.60 and No.66 cars up front this season.
Give one bold prediction for what will happen in 2025.
Dan: Maybe predicting Scott McLaughlin to win both the championship and the Indianapolis 500 was a bold enough prediction in itself - but I’m going to go one step further here. McLaughlin will sweep the oval races in 2025. Sure, his teammate Josef Newgarden has the oval pedigree in the team, but why should we discount McLaughlin after his oval form last season? The Kiwi didn’t finish outside the top eight on an oval once, had an average oval qualifying of second, and had the best average finish on an oval by almost three positions. Maybe it was circumstantial in 2024, but it’s hard to look at all the oval performance metrics without having some conviction that his oval performances won’t repeat in 2025. Yes, I’m pushing the boundaries, but Newgarden was remarkably close to pulling this off in 2023 - why can’t McLaughlin do the same?
Archie: I am calling that both A.J. Foyt Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing will win races in 2025. Aside from Christian Lundgaard for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing in Toronto in 2023, there have been no winners outside the ‘big four’ teams since Rinus VeeKay (Ed Carpenter Racing) and Helio Castroneves (Meyer Shank Racing) won races in 2021. But between Foyt, ECR and the likes of MSR - with their new Chip Ganassi Racing link-up - competition for wins feels greater than ever. With the Team Penske alliance, I can see Foyt continuing an upwards trajectory and returning to victory lane for the first time since 2013 with one of its two young chargers. And how about ECR with Alexander Rossi now in their ranks and with new investment onboard?
Morgan: Honda takes the engine manufacturer’s championship. After three straight years of Chevrolet coming out on top, it’s Honda’s turn to take the win. Despite Team Penske’s dominance with Chevrolet and the fact that there’s one more full-time team running Chevrolet engines than Honda engines, I’m betting Honda pulls out an underdog win with teams like Andretti, Chip Ganassi, and Meyer Shank Racing coming forward to get good results and help the manufacturer’s reclaim the title they lost to Chevrolet the past three seasons.
Jackson: Rinus VeeKay will his maiden start this Sunday with Dale Coyne Racing. The Dutchman may be only 24 years old, but as he enters his sixth season in the series, he’s shown a maturity behind the wheel far beyond his years, getting mid-class machinery at Ed Carpenter Racing to victory lane at Indianapolis, and a handful of podiums elsewhere. It’s this kind of maturity and patience that makes me believe that VeeKay will stand on the podium at some point this year, delivering Dale Coyne their first podium finish since David Malukas’ Gateway storm in 2023. The Indianapolis Grand Prix is always a safe bet for VeeKay, being where he got his first podium and top-five in 2020 followed by victory in 2021. VeeKay has seized these moments before with ECR, and he’ll do the same for Dale Coyne Racing.
Those are the predictions of the DIVEBOMB IndyCar writers heading into the 2025 IndyCar season. Please share your predictions with us, and stay tuned on all of DIVEBOMB's channels for content throughout the St. Petersburg weekend and for the rest of the 2025 season.
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